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OMC Warns of Global Trade Decline Tied to U.S. Tariffs

Revised forecasts project a 0.2% to 1.5% contraction in 2025 merchandise trade, with North America facing the sharpest impacts.

Selon l’OMC, «le volume du commerce mondial des marchandises devrait diminuer de 0,2% en 2025»,
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Overview

  • The Organisation mondiale du commerce (OMC) has lowered its 2025 merchandise trade forecast, citing U.S. tariff policies under President Trump as a key factor.
  • Global merchandise trade is expected to contract by 0.2% under current conditions, but could decline as much as 1.5% if trade tensions escalate further.
  • North America is forecasted to experience the steepest declines, with exports projected to fall by 12.6% and imports by 9.6%.
  • Despite the downturn in merchandise trade, the OMC predicts 4.0% growth in the global service sector and modest overall GDP growth of 2.2% in 2025.
  • U.S.-China trade tensions raise concerns of broader economic fragmentation, with potential long-term GDP reductions of up to 7% globally if decoupling persists.