Overview
- Brent crude plunged more than $6 intraday before recovering to about $103–$104 after traders reacted to a string of mixed reports about US‑Iran negotiations.
- Reports that Iran’s supreme leader had authorized talks were stronger than Iranian officials’ statements, and Iran later denied any breakthrough while Qatar said proposals were only under review.
- US officials confirmed limited defensive strikes on Qeshm Island targeting surface‑to‑air systems, and analysts say the small strikes add to uncertainty without signaling a return to large‑scale combat.
- Data firms including Rystad and Vortexa and industry inventory readings show Persian Gulf flows and refined fuel supplies remain below normal, keeping a supply risk premium in prices.
- The US midterm vote count and conflicting media headlines have amplified automated and momentum trading, increasing the chance of abrupt price swings and leaving markets on edge about next steps in diplomacy.