Overview
- Fighting that resumed in early July, when Iranian forces fired on merchant ships and the United States launched repeated nighttime strikes, has kept the Strait of Hormuz risky for tankers.
- This week Houthi militia attacks on two Saudi tankers and a declared Red Sea blockade have put the Bab al‑Mandab route under severe pressure and removed Saudi Arabia’s key alternative export lane.
- Brent crude has risen back above $100 per barrel after the recent attacks, and analysts say prices could climb toward about $120 if Red Sea transit falls to minimal levels.
- Market pressure is heavier for refined fuels than for crude because higher freight and war‑risk insurance costs and tighter refinery margins are already lifting diesel and kerosene prices faster than crude.
- Policymakers and industry are weighing relief measures such as fuel‑tax cuts or margin rules while production hits elsewhere, including Kazakhstan’s output cuts over Novorossiysk security concerns, deepen global tightness.