Overview
- The benchmark 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield briefly rose above 5% on Monday, touching multiyear highs before settling slightly lower as bond markets sold off.
- Brent crude climbed above $100 after attacks that took the East‑West pipeline offline, a route that can handle about 4 million barrels per day and tightened global oil flows.
- Traders are pricing a roughly 90–93% probability of a 25 basis‑point Federal Reserve increase at this week’s meeting, which would raise the target range to about 3.75%–4.00%.
- Higher oil and yields pushed mortgage and consumer borrowing costs toward the high‑6% to about 7% range, and rising funding costs are already weighing on businesses that must refinance debt.
- Warnings from AI industry leaders weighed on tech and semiconductor stocks, sent investors toward safe assets and strengthened the dollar, and all eyes are on the Fed’s updated projections and Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference for guidance on the path ahead.