Overview

• IEA projects 2025 oil supply growth of 2.1 million barrels per day compared with demand growth of just 700,000 bpd
• Heightened refinery processing for summer travel and power generation has tightened near-term market balances
• OPEC+ surprised markets with a 548,000 bpd production increase effective August 1
• Saudi Arabia overshot its June OPEC+ quota by roughly 700,000 barrels per day along with other members
• Demand faces headwinds from U.S. tariffs, potential sanctions on Russian exports and China’s electric vehicle transition