Overview
- Brent crude settled up 1.33% at $68.65 a barrel on Monday, with WTI near $62, as traders awaited Tuesday’s second round of U.S.–Iran talks in Geneva.
- Washington has deployed a second aircraft carrier to the region, and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned they could strike any U.S. base if Iranian territory is attacked.
- OPEC+ members are leaning toward resuming production increases from April after a three‑month pause, with a final decision expected at the March 1 meeting.
- Analysts say prices carry a geopolitical risk premium and note crude would likely be below $60 without it, with limited scope to break sustainably above $70 absent supply disruption.
- Market activity was muted by holidays in China, South Korea and Taiwan, and prices last week eased after President Trump suggested a deal with Iran could be reached within a month.