Overview
- Brent traded near $63.20 and WTI around $58.71 early Tuesday, little changed after a 1.3% rebound on Monday that followed last week’s slide.
- Markets are reassessing the chances of a U.S.-brokered Russia‑Ukraine agreement before Thursday’s deadline, with talks described as inconclusive by Kyiv and European allies.
- Any accord that eases sanctions is seen as potentially unlocking restricted Russian supply, including roughly 48 million barrels currently stranded at sea.
- Banks warn of a deeper, longer surplus: Deutsche Bank projects at least a 2 million bpd surplus in 2026, and JPMorgan says Brent could sink into the $30s by 2027 if oversupply persists.
- Rate-cut expectations for the Federal Reserve’s Dec. 9–10 meeting offer limited support to demand, while OPEC+ convenes Nov. 30 to review policy after recent capacity reactivations.