Overview
- WTI hovered near $58 and Brent around $62 after the largest two-day decline in a month, with prices still confined to a narrow trading range since early November.
- Monday’s drop followed Iraq restoring output at Lukoil’s West Qurna‑2 field, adding supply to a market already grappling with oversupply concerns.
- The EIA lifted its 2025 U.S. production forecast to about 13.61 million bpd, while the IEA and other forecasters flag a 2026 surplus and Trafigura warns of a potential “super glut.”
- Markets assign roughly mid‑80s to high‑80s odds to a quarter‑point Fed rate cut this week, a move traders say could cushion demand even as fundamentals point weaker.
- Geopolitical tensions keep volatility elevated, with Ukrainian strikes disrupting export infrastructure, G7/EU talks on a maritime services ban under consideration, and Moscow assuring India of uninterrupted supply.