Overview

• Brent hovered near $69 and WTI near $66 on Tuesday after a holiday pause, keeping crude confined to a recent $65–$70 band.
• Reuters estimates about 17% of Russia’s oil-processing capacity, roughly 1.1 million barrels per day, is offline after intensified Ukrainian drone strikes.
• Washington’s 50% tariffs on Indian goods over New Delhi’s Russian oil purchases coincided with Urals offers to India widening to a $3–$4 per barrel discount to Brent for late-September and October cargoes.
• Tanker-tracking shows Russian flows to India stuck below about 1.3 million barrels per day in the four weeks to Aug. 31 as shipments to China rose to around 1.28 million barrels per day, with overall weekly exports rebounding to 3.49 million barrels per day.
• Traders are watching the OPEC+ meeting on Sept. 7 and U.S. labor data and Fed signals, with analysts warning that rising OPEC+ output and record U.S. production of 13.58 million barrels per day raise surplus risks.