Overview
- Economists surveyed by Reuters expect the CPI due Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET to rise about 0.9% in March and 3.3% year over year, the largest monthly gain since 2022.
- The war-driven jump in energy pushed U.S. gasoline above $4 a gallon and delivered the biggest one-month fuel cost surge since at least 1957, with households paying about $8.4 billion more for fuel in the first month.
- With February PCE still elevated at 2.8% headline and 3.0% core, Fed minutes show some policymakers ready to consider rate hikes if inflation proves persistent, reducing the odds of near-term cuts.
- Global spillovers are emerging as China’s producer prices rose 0.5% year over year after a 41‑month slide, Japan’s consumer confidence fell sharply in March, and Germany’s final March CPI held at 2.7% on higher energy.
- Analysts warn costs for air travel, trucking, and food could keep climbing for months, even after a brief ceasefire knocked oil lower this week, because supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz remain uncertain and energy prices tend to fall more slowly than they rise.