Overview
- Brent hovered near $61 and WTI around $58 at year-end, with Brent down about 18% and WTI roughly 15–20% for 2025 in the steepest annual drop since the pandemic.
- OPEC+ restored roughly 2.9 million barrels per day since April and has paused further increases for the first quarter of 2026, with delegates signaling the group is likely to maintain that stance on Jan. 4.
- The IEA projects a 2026 surplus near 3.85–4.0 million bpd, and Goldman Sachs forecasts average prices next year of about $56 for Brent and $52 for WTI on expected oversupply.
- U.S. data reinforced bearish sentiment as gasoline stocks rose by 5.8 million barrels and distillates by 4.98 million, while Vortexa tracked a 15% weekly jump in stationary tanker storage to 129.33 million barrels.
- Geopolitical actions, including a U.S. blockade of some Venezuelan shipments and attacks on Russian energy assets, offered only brief support, as Russian oil revenues fell sharply under low prices and sanctions.