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Oil Slumps Before OPEC+ Decision as Saudi Push for Bigger Hike Meets Russian Caution

Prices reflect expectations for a fresh quota increase at Sunday’s virtual meeting.

Overview

  • Eight OPEC+ producers are set to decide Sunday on another November supply increase, with sources saying Saudi Arabia favors 274,000–548,000 bpd while Russia prefers a 137,000 bpd repeat.
  • OPEC publicly rejected reports of a half‑million‑barrel hike as inaccurate, highlighting the gap between market chatter and the group’s official position.
  • Brent and WTI are heading for weekly losses of roughly 7–8% despite a modest Friday bounce, with Brent near $64–65 and WTI around $61.
  • Analysts note that announced quota hikes have recently translated to only about 75% in actual barrels, as compensation cuts and limited spare capacity constrain deliveries.
  • Iraq has proposed immediate compensation cuts of about 130,000 bpd that could offset some headline increases, while banks such as Goldman Sachs expect a smaller ~140,000 bpd rise.