Overview
- OPEC’s monthly report moved its 2026 view from a deficit to rough balance, triggering a sharp selloff that pushed Brent near $62.8 and WTI around $58.6 by early afternoon in New York.
- The IEA reinforced softer fundamentals, while the EIA lifted its 2025 U.S. output estimate to 13.59 million bpd, adding to supply‑side pressure.
- OPEC+ kept its plan to add about 137,000 bpd in December and to pause further hikes in the first quarter of 2026, signaling comfortable supply into next year.
- U.S. sanctions disrupted Russian flows as Lukoil declared force majeure at Iraq’s West Qurna‑2, while constrained product exports buoyed European diesel and gasoline margins.
- Russia’s Urals discount to Brent widened to roughly $19–$20 a barrel as some buyers in China and India reduced purchases, alongside oversupply signs such as doubled Asian floating storage and rising U.S. inventories.