Overview

• Crude eased on Friday as abundant supply and softer fuel demand weighed on the market, trimming recent gains.
• WTI settled near $63.6 and Brent hovered around $67 after the pullback, moderating a second consecutive weekly advance.
• The Federal Reserve lowered rates by 25 basis points and signaled further easing this year, though several analysts say such small moves are unlikely to materially boost oil demand.
• Major forecasts point to sizeable surpluses ahead, including an IEA projection of a 3.3 million b/d excess in 2026 and an EIA estimate of about 2.1 million b/d in the second half of this year, with seasonal refinery maintenance further dampening consumption.
• Analysts highlight China’s ongoing crude stockpiling and the persistence of backwardation as supports for prices, while OPEC+ quota increases of about 2.5 million b/d since April may translate into smaller actual output and President Trump’s preference for cheaper oil adds political pressure.