Overview

• Benchmarks eased after a three‑day climb, with traders pivoting to oversupply risks and softer U.S. demand despite recent flare‑ups.
• The IEA projected faster‑than‑expected growth in global supply this year as OPEC+ moves ahead with a 137,000 bpd quota increase from October.
• U.S. crude inventories rose by 3.9 million barrels last week and gasoline stocks increased by 1.5 million, signaling weaker near‑term consumption.
• Geopolitical risk persisted after Israel’s strike on Hamas leaders in Doha and Poland’s downing of drones during a Russian attack on Ukraine, the first known NATO gunfire in the war.
• Saudi crude shipments to China are set to rise to about 1.65 million bpd in October, while markets assess President Trump’s tariff threats targeting major buyers of Russian oil.