Overview
- Russia's Novorossiysk port restarted oil loadings on Sunday after a two-day halt, knocking Brent near $64 and WTI around $60.
- The brief outage, which also affected a nearby Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal, had paused flows equal to roughly 2% of global supply, according to LSEG and industry sources.
- Major Indian and Chinese refiners halted direct purchases from Rosneft and Lukoil before the Nov. 21 sanctions deadline, pushing Urals to $36.61 and widening its discount to Brent to about $23.5.
- JPMorgan estimates roughly 1.4 million barrels per day of Russian crude is now in floating storage as trade flows are rerouted under tightening restrictions.
- Goldman Sachs and the IEA project a sizeable surplus through 2025–26 that could depress crude prices even as refining margins stay elevated on outages and tight diesel supply.