Overview

• OPEC+ is expected to approve at least a 137,000 bpd increase for November at its Oct. 5 meeting, extending the staged unwinding of a 1.65 million bpd cut that began with October’s step-up.
• Actual OPEC+ output remains roughly 500,000 bpd below pledged levels as several producers run near capacity, suggesting the realized supply boost will trail headline quotas.
• Iraq’s Kurdistan region restarted pipeline exports to Turkey at about 180,000–190,000 bpd, with volumes seen rising toward roughly 230,000 bpd under an interim deal.
• Brent retreated below $70 and WTI hovered near $65, with intraday losses of about 1%–3% as traders priced in higher near-term supply.
• Saudi Arabia is expected to slightly raise November official selling prices to Asia, with Arab Light seen up by roughly $0.20–$0.40 per barrel in line with firmer Dubai benchmarks.