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Oil Slides 2% as OPEC+ Weighs October Output Increase

Traders are bracing for a Sept. 7 decision on how quickly withheld barrels return.

Overview

  • OPEC+ ministers will convene on Sept. 7 to consider raising October production targets and potentially tapping some of the remaining 1.65–1.66 million bpd in voluntary cuts.
  • Brent and WTI extended losses to roughly 2%, with Brent near $67 and WTI around $64 in early Thursday trading as markets priced a higher supply risk.
  • OPEC crude output rose about 400,000 bpd in August to 28.55 million bpd, led by Saudi Arabia, with additional gains from the UAE, Nigeria and a modest recovery in Libya.
  • Compliance strains resurfaced as Kazakhstan exceeded its quota and Iraq lifted exports, complicating decisions on the pace of restoring barrels across members.
  • U.S. and European inventories remain above seasonal norms, and an API-estimated 622,000-barrel U.S. crude build added to bearish sentiment ahead of official stockpile data.