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Oil Set for Steep 2025 Loss as Surplus Fears Weigh on Prices

Surplus projections plus a U.S. stock build keep attention on OPEC+'s Jan. 4 meeting.

Overview

  • Brent is down nearly 18% for the year, with WTI trading below $58 late in December.
  • OPEC+ paused further output hikes for the first quarter of 2026 after adding about 2.9 million barrels per day since April.
  • Forecasts point to supply outpacing demand in 2026, with the IEA near a 3.84 million bpd surplus and Goldman Sachs around 2 million bpd.
  • The American Petroleum Institute reports a 1.7 million‑barrel U.S. crude build in the latest week, awaiting confirmation from official data.
  • Market strategists say fresh OPEC+ cuts would likely occur only if prices slide into the low $50s per barrel.