Overview
- Brent trades near $61 and WTI around $58 to cap 2025 with the steepest annual fall since 2020, with Brent on track for a third straight yearly loss.
- OPEC+ has restored roughly 2.9 million bpd since April and will pause further increases in the first quarter of 2026, with policy guidance due at the Jan. 4 meeting.
- Forecasters see supply exceeding demand next year, with the IEA estimating about a 3.8 million bpd surplus and Goldman Sachs projecting roughly 2 million bpd.
- Latest data signal soft fundamentals, with the EIA reporting a crude draw but large gasoline and distillate builds, floating storage up 15% week over week, and an earlier API reading of a 1.7 million‑barrel U.S. crude build.
- Geopolitical frictions and sanctions have added volatility without reversing the downtrend, while low prices and discounts have slashed Russia’s oil export revenues, which Goldman Sachs estimates fell by about 50% in ruble terms this year.