Overview

• Oil prices bounced back above $65 per barrel on Friday, clawing back part of this week’s 12% slide caused by the U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Iran and Israel.
• U.S. crude inventories tumbled by 5.8 million barrels in the week to June 20, outpacing forecasts and pulling commercial stocks to an 11-year seasonal low.
• Gasoline stocks also tightened with a draw of over 2 million barrels, while fuel consumption reached its highest level since December 2021 ahead of Fourth of July travel.
• A weaker dollar, trading at a three-year low, and rising U.S. equity markets have bolstered oil by improving affordability and signaling stronger economic momentum.
• Market attention now turns to the July 6 OPEC+ meeting, where another 411,000 bpd output increase is expected and could push the market into a year-end surplus.