Overview

• Brent and WTI rose about 1% in early Thursday trade, recovering a fraction of Wednesday’s slide to five-month lows.
• Trump said Prime Minister Narendra Modi agreed to stop Indian purchases of Russian oil, but traders await evidence as New Delhi offered no confirmation and Moscow expressed confidence the partnership will continue.
• Some Indian refiners are preparing to reduce Russian imports with expectations of a gradual cut, according to Reuters sources.
• The IEA forecast a potential 2026 surplus of up to 4 million barrels per day, compounding bearish sentiment alongside an API-reported 7.36 million-barrel U.S. crude inventory build last week.
• Market structure continued to soften with narrower backwardation suggesting ample near-term supply, while new UK sanctions on Rosneft, Lukoil-linked assets and shadow-fleet tankers added pressure on Russian flows.