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Oil Rebounds as Ukraine Diplomacy Falters, Putting Risk Premium Back in Prices

A six-million-barrel U.S. inventory draw reinforces the rebound.

A drone view shows oil tankers loading crude oil at the Basra Oil Terminal in Iraqi territorial waters, off the coast of Basra, Iraq, August 5, 2025. REUTERS/Mohammed Aty/File Photo
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Overview

  • Brent and WTI hovered near $67.63 and $63.51, leaving both contracts on track to snap a two-week losing streak with modest weekly gains.
  • Traders rebuilt a geopolitical premium after hopes for a rapid settlement faded, reversing the earlier sell-off tied to expectations of swift diplomacy.
  • Russia carried out an air attack near Ukraine’s EU border and Ukraine said it struck a Russian refinery, heightening perceived supply risks.
  • EIA data showed U.S. crude stockpiles fell by 6 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 15, far larger than the 1.8 million-barrel draw analysts expected.
  • Investors are monitoring the Jackson Hole gathering for Federal Reserve signals that could shift the oil demand outlook.