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Oil Rebounds as Traders Focus on Russian Sanctions Deadline and Conflicting U.S. Stock Data

Conflicting inventory data alongside a looming RosneftLukoil cutoff keeps the balance between surplus forecasts and supply risks in doubt.

Overview

  • Brent traded near $63.7 and WTI around $59.6 in early Thursday dealings after both benchmarks fell about 2% on Wednesday.
  • The EIA reported a 3.4 million‑barrel U.S. crude draw for the week ending Nov. 14, contradicting an API estimate of a 4.4 million‑barrel build, while gasoline and distillate stocks rose for the first time in over a month.
  • The U.S. sanctions wind‑down deadline for Rosneft and Lukoil arrives Nov. 21, with traders watching for further disruption after reports of reduced Russian exports and shifting flows to key buyers such as India.
  • U.S. crude output is at a record ~13.862 million bpd and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve added about 500,000 barrels, reinforcing agency projections that point to growing surpluses into 2026.
  • A Reuters report that Washington drafted a framework to end the Russia‑Ukraine war pressured prices on expectations of potential supply returning, even as recent attacks and sanctions have tightened some Russian product markets.