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Oil Rebounds After Ukrainian Strike Damages Russia’s Novorossiysk Export Hub

Short‑term supply fears briefly outweighed forecasts for oversupply.

Overview

  • Brent rose about 2% to roughly $64 and WTI to about $60 after reports that drones hit facilities at Novorossiysk, a key Russian oil port.
  • The attack damaged a ship, apartment buildings and an oil depot, with regional officials reporting injuries to three crew members.
  • Traders monitored looming U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil that take effect after November 21, with JPMorgan estimating about 1.4 million bpd stuck on tankers as unloading slows.
  • Prices had slumped 3–4% earlier in the week after OPEC shifted to a projected surplus for 2026 and the IEA lifted its implied surplus to about 4.1 million bpd.
  • The bearish backdrop was reinforced by a 6.4 million‑barrel U.S. crude stock build to 427.6 million barrels, even as OPEC+ approved a 137,000 bpd output increase for December and a pause in early 2026.