Overview
- Brent and WTI rose roughly 1%–2% early Wednesday to around $60 and $56 after both benchmarks hit multi-year lows the previous session.
- President Donald Trump ordered a “total and complete” blockade on sanctioned tankers entering and leaving Venezuela and labeled the Maduro government a foreign terrorist organization, though enforcement details remain unclear.
- Venezuelan crude exports have dropped sharply since a U.S. seizure of a sanctioned tanker last week, and traders estimate potential disruptions on the order of 0.4–0.5 million barrels per day.
- Structural pressures persist as the IEA projects a 2026 surplus near 3.7–3.8 million barrels per day, with contango emerging in Middle East and U.S. Gulf markets and OPEC+ output higher this year.
- Optimism around Ukraine ceasefire talks and weak Chinese factory and retail data continue to cap prices, with analysts noting any deal could eventually relax curbs on Russian oil flows.