Overview

• Brent slipped to about $68.64 and WTI to $64.64 early Tuesday after Monday’s near 2% jump to the highest levels in more than two weeks.
• The U.S. Department of Homeland Security issued a draft notice to double tariffs on all Indian imports to 50% starting Wednesday, and India signaled it will keep buying Russian crude on commercial and energy‑security grounds.
• Ukrainian drones hit Russia’s Ust-Luga fuel export terminal and the Novoshakhtinsk refinery, with officials reporting a major blaze and a refinery fire persisting for a fourth day, elevating supply disruption risk.
• Rate-cut expectations strengthened after Jerome Powell indicated the Fed could ease policy as soon as next month, boosting risk appetite and helping WTI clear its 100-day moving average on Monday.
• OPEC+ supply restoration continues to stoke glut concerns, with Brent briefly flipping to a rare discount to Dubai, as traders also watch API and EIA data for signs of tightening or slack in U.S. inventories.