Overview

• Brent slipped to about $68.64 and WTI to $64.64 early Tuesday after nearly 2% gains Monday that took both to their highest levels in more than two weeks.
• Ukrainian drone strikes triggered a major blaze at Russia’s Ust-Luga fuel export terminal and a prolonged fire at the Novoshakhtinsk refinery, a mostly export-focused plant of roughly 100,000 barrels per day.
• Analysts said the attacks increased the risk of disruption to Russian oil supplies, shifting near-term price risks to the upside.
• Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s signal that rate cuts may resume as soon as next month lifted risk appetite, helping underpin crude alongside supply concerns.
• Market structure reflected caution over a potential later-year surplus as Brent briefly traded at a rare discount to Dubai, with traders also monitoring U.S. tariff pressure on India that could reshape crude buying patterns.