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Oil Prices Tick Higher on Iran Unrest, Venezuela Risks as Trump Threatens Iran-Related Tariffs

Markets reflect a geopolitical risk premium with disruption to Hormuz viewed as unlikely.

Overview

  • Brent for March settled at $63.87 (+0.83%) and WTI for February at $59.50 (+0.64%) on Jan. 12, according to ICE and Nymex.
  • Traders pointed to continued protests in Iran, with an NGO citing more than 600 deaths and DNB noting strikes by the Kangan-based oil union at two refineries.
  • SEB analyst Bjarne Schieldrop said the market assigns very low odds to a U.S. action that would impede shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
  • On Jan. 13, oil futures rose further to the highest levels since November and Petrobras shares advanced after President Trump warned a 25% tariff on products from countries that "do business" with Iran.
  • In Venezuela, Trump said the U.S. is working "very well" with Caracas and urged oil executives to commit at least $100 billion, while ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods cautioned that deep reforms are needed and drew a public reprimand from the president.