Overview

• Oil prices fell modestly on August 15–16 ahead of talks between President Trump and President Putin in Alaska.
• Traders are expecting possible easing of US sanctions to unlock additional Russian crude production.
• The International Energy Agency raised its forecast for global supply growth, highlighting an increased OPEC+ share.
• Chinese factory output and retail sales data missed expectations, dampening the demand outlook for fuel.
• Markets remain at risk of a price rebound if talks falter and US threats of secondary sanctions on Russian buyers materialize.