Overview

• China's decision to increase tariffs on U.S. imports to 125% has intensified trade tensions, further pressuring global oil markets.
• Goldman Sachs predicts Brent and WTI prices will average $63 and $59 per barrel, respectively, for the rest of 2025, with further declines expected in 2026.
• The ongoing trade war has significantly reduced U.S. crude exports to China, contributing to bearish market sentiment.
• OPEC+ production increases and a projected global oil surplus of 800,000 barrels per day in 2025 are adding downward pressure on prices.
• Economic forecasters warn of a potential U.S. recession driven by tariff policies, which could further weaken oil demand and exacerbate price declines.