Particle.news
Download on the App Store

Oil Prices Slide as OPEC+ Poised for November Increase, Kurdish Exports Restart

Traders price a near-term surplus driven by an expected OPEC+ November increase plus returning Kurdish barrels.

Overview

  • OPEC+ is expected to approve at least a 137,000 bpd hike for November at an Oct. 5 virtual meeting, though the group has recently pumped about 500,000 bpd below its targets.
  • Brent settled at $67.02 and WTI at $62.37 on Sept. 30 after back-to-back declines, leaving both benchmarks down for a second straight month.
  • Crude flows from Iraq’s Kurdistan region to Turkey have resumed at roughly 180,000–190,000 bpd, with up to 230,000 bpd projected to return to international markets.
  • Since April, OPEC+ has restored more than 2.5 million bpd of quotas, including a 300,000 bpd allowance for the UAE, but many members are near capacity so realized increases have lagged pledges.
  • National dynamics diverge as Pemex crude exports fell to 500,203 bpd in August and Dos Bocas fuel output dropped 34% to 102,000 bpd, while Argentina’s Vaca Muerta helped lift oil production to its highest level since 1999.