Overview

• Brent and WTI jumped up to nearly 2% after a Ukrainian drone attack suspended loadings at Russia’s Primorsk export terminal, briefly tightening near-term supply.
• The IEA’s latest report projects global supply growth of 2.7 million bpd in 2025 and 2.1 million bpd in 2026, warning of an average 2.5 million bpd inventory build in H2 2025 and a potential 3.3 million bpd surplus next year.
• OPEC+ will raise its output target by 137,000 bpd in October as it starts unwinding cuts, though analysts say compensation reductions—led by Iraq—could neutralize much of the increase if enforced.
• Forecasts diverge sharply on demand, with the IEA seeing about 740,000–750,000 bpd growth in 2025 versus OPEC’s estimate of roughly 1.29–1.3 million bpd.
• Bearish signals include a surprise 3.9 million-barrel U.S. crude inventory build, while China’s roughly 187 million barrels of stockpiling this year has supported prompt backwardation.