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Oil Prices Plunge to Four-Year Low as Trade Tensions and OPEC+ Output Surge Weigh on Markets

WTI crude falls below $62 per barrel, with escalating U.S.-China tariffs and increased OPEC+ production fueling fears of a global recession.

A nighttime view of Marathon Petroleum's Los Angeles Refinery, which processes domestic & imported crude oil into gasoline, diesel fuel, and other refined petroleum products, in Carson, California, U.S., March 11, 2022. Picture taken with a drone. REUTERS/Bing Guan/File Photo
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A pump jack operates near a gas turbine power plant in the Permian Basin oil field outside of Odessa, Texas, U.S. February 18, 2025.  REUTERS/Eli Hartman/File Photo

Overview

  • West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped to under $62 per barrel, marking its lowest level since 2021, as Brent crude also fell below $65.
  • OPEC+ announced a significant production hike of 411,000 barrels per day starting in May, nearly triple the previously expected increase, exacerbating oversupply concerns.
  • The U.S.-China trade war escalated with reciprocal tariffs, including China's 34% duty on U.S. goods, raising fears of reduced global energy demand and economic slowdown.
  • Energy stocks, including U.S. refiners and Canadian energy firms, saw sharp declines, with some reaching multi-year lows as investors reacted to weakening demand and margins.
  • Financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan have downgraded oil price forecasts, citing heightened recession risks, increased supply, and declining demand growth.