Overview

• Crude benchmarks are set for a nearly 12% weekly drop—the steepest since March 2023—after traders stripped out the Iran–Israel conflict premium.
• Options traders now see just a 4% chance of Middle East supply disruption following the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran.
• Analysts at Macquarie and Goldman Sachs say the market is fundamentally oversupplied with a roughly 2.1 million bpd surplus projected for 2025.
• The IEA has cut its global demand growth forecast to 1.1 million bpd for 2025 even as non-OPEC producers including the United States, Brazil, and Guyana ramp up output.
• ING analysts expect OPEC+ to approve a further 411,000 bpd production increase at its July 6 meeting, adding to surplus concerns.