Overview

• Brent and WTI crude trade around $64–$67 per barrel on Friday as investors await the Trump–Putin meeting in Anchorage
• Standard Chartered and JPMorgan highlight Russia’s roughly 9.05 mb/d Q2 output leaves minimal spare barrels to flood global markets
• U.S. Department of Energy data and Bloomberg‐reported revisions project a 2025 surplus near 1.7 mb/d, adding to bearish pressure from OPEC+ output increases
• Experts note lifting price caps could undercut India and China’s incentive to buy discounted Russian crude, tempering any post-summit export boost
• Market participants expect any rally or sell-off following ceasefire headlines to be short-lived, with fundamentals still dominated by logistics and inventory constraints