Overview

• Brent crude trades around $67 a barrel, with WTI near $64 after inching higher to one-week peaks ahead of the Alaska summit.
• Trump warned of very severe consequences if Putin blocks a Ukraine ceasefire, raising the stakes of any U.S. sanction relief.
• Market watchers say physical Russian oil flows would climb by only about 200,000 barrels per day in the short term even if sanctions are loosened.
• U.S. Department of Energy figures show a mid-2025 supply surplus of roughly 1.3 million barrels per day, with OPEC+ pledging further output gains.
• Stronger-than-expected Japanese GDP data for Q2 provided support; higher-for-longer U.S. rate projections capped further gains.