Overview

• OPEC+ raised output by 411,000 barrels per day for July—its third straight monthly increase—and is anticipated to deliver a final identical hike in August before pausing.
• Wildfires in Alberta have disrupted about 7% of Canada’s oil sands output, leading to evacuations and temporary shutdowns that have tightened global supply.
• Geopolitical shocks from the Ukraine-Russia conflict and Iran’s planned rejection of a U.S. nuclear deal have injected risk premiums into markets, while a softer dollar has made oil cheaper for non-U.S. buyers.
• Brent crude has climbed above $65 per barrel, with analysts projecting averages of $60 for 2025 and $56 in 2026 as supply concerns persist.
• U.S. shale producers are facing narrowed profit margins due to escalating production costs and tariff-driven economic uncertainty that may curb drilling incentives.