Overview

• Nageswaran cautions that crude oil hitting about $73–$74 per barrel on Iran-Israel tensions introduces significant downside risks for India’s growth trajectory.
• He highlights that the global uncertainty index is rising toward record levels, potentially exceeding peaks seen during the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war.
• Despite these challenges, India sustained a 6.5% GDP growth rate in fiscal 2024-25 and is forecast to expand between 6.3% and 6.8% in 2025-26.
• The CEA describes current geopolitical shocks as a slow-moving event likely to span several years with an average impact that may surpass the 2008 financial crisis.
• He underscores that reduced fiscal deficits, lower government debt and production-linked incentives have bolstered self-reliance even as import dependence on digital machinery and lithium batteries remains a vulnerability.