Overview
- EIA data show global production outpaced consumption throughout 2025, with implied stock builds exceeding 2.5 million barrels per day in the second half and Brent averaging $69 for the year.
- A Reuters survey of 34 analysts projects Brent at $61.27 and WTI at $58.15 in 2026, with a surplus of roughly 0.5–3.5 million barrels per day and OPEC+ keeping output steady into the first quarter.
- Brent hovered near $61 and WTI near $58 on Jan. 5 after a modest rise tied to the U.S. operation in Venezuela, though analysts see limited immediate supply impact given Venezuelan output below 1 million barrels per day.
- The EIA’s latest outlook points to early‑2026 averages near $55 for Brent and $51 for WTI, reflecting resilient non‑OPEC supply growth and the rollback of some OPEC+ voluntary cuts.
- SBI Research says Brent could slide toward $50 by June 2026, a scenario that would further ease inflation and energy import costs, particularly for large importers such as India.