Overview
- Brent hovered near $61 and WTI around $57–58 in early trading on January 2, starting the year with a modest uptick.
- Both benchmarks fell about 20% in 2025, the steepest drop since 2020, as record U.S. production and other non‑OPEC gains swelled supply, with Brent posting a third straight annual decline.
- The International Energy Agency projects a 2026 surplus of roughly 3.8–3.85 million barrels per day, signaling a deepening imbalance.
- Washington sanctioned four companies and associated tankers tied to Venezuela’s oil trade, blocking sanctioned vessels from Venezuelan ports and tightening exports.
- Reports of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil facilities lifted risk premiums, while traders await the January 4 OPEC+ meeting that is widely expected to keep output increases on hold.