Overview
- Traders price an 84% chance of a quarter-point U.S. rate cut this week, lifting demand expectations, according to LSEG data.
- Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, including the CPC Black Sea terminal, curtailed loadings and boosted physical crude prices.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin assured India of uninterrupted fuel shipments as the country continues buying discounted Russian crude.
- Chinese independent refiners increased purchases of sanctioned Iranian oil using new import quotas, helping to ease a supply glut.
- Analysts say outcomes from war and peace efforts could swing supply by more than 2 million barrels per day, with oversupply risks pointing futures toward about $60 a barrel through 2026.