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Oil Near Monthly Lows as Ukraine Ceasefire Signals Cut Risk Premiums

Expectations of revived Russian supply alongside a projected 2026 surplus keep crude under pressure.

Overview

  • Brent traded near $62.43 and WTI around $57.96 after touching one-month lows, with prices steady as investors reassessed supply risks.
  • Volodymyr Zelensky told European leaders he is ready to advance a U.S.-backed framework to end the war with only a few points unresolved, and President Donald Trump directed envoys to meet separately with Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian officials, with a Ukrainian official saying a U.S. visit by Zelensky could come in days.
  • Fresh Western measures targeting Rosneft and Lukoil remain in force, with reports indicating as much as 48 million barrels may be sitting offshore without clear buyers.
  • Indian demand for discounted Russian crude has slumped, with Reliance cutting purchases and imports poised for a three‑year low in December, while Moscow seeks to expand flows to China according to Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.
  • Analysts warn of a 2026 surplus of at least 2 million barrels per day, traders are watching WTI support near $55.50–$56, and IG’s Tony Sycamore says a finalized deal could quickly unwind sanctions and pull WTI toward $55.