Overview
- Brent rose about 4% for the week and WTI roughly 2%, while oil stocks whipsawed with sector losses near $18 billion and Chevron up around 8% since early January.
- Venezuelan sovereign and PDVSA bonds rallied from near 10% of par to about 35%, signaling investor expectations of structural change.
- Repsol said it is ready to triple Venezuelan production to roughly 135,000 barrels per day within two to three years if legal certainty and stable contracts are in place.
- Independent estimates highlight steep hurdles, with WoodMackenzie citing high breakevens for heavy crude and Rystad projecting about $183 billion to restore output to 3 million barrels per day by 2040.
- Despite the world’s largest reserves, Venezuela currently produces about 1% of global oil, while regional players—led by Argentina’s Vaca Muerta, Brazil and Guyana—are set to gain influence, with the EIA seeing Argentina near 810,000 barrels per day in 2026.