Overview

• The International Energy Agency lifted its global oil supply growth forecasts to 2.5 million barrels per day for 2025 and 1.9 million bpd for 2026 while cutting demand growth projections and warning of inventory accumulation near 3 million bpd.
• The U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its forecast for a 2025 oil surplus to 1.7 million barrels per day and projected a 1.5 million bpd surplus in 2026.
• OPEC raised its demand growth estimate for 2026 by 100,000 bpd to 1.38 million bpd and simultaneously trimmed its forecast for non-OPEC+ supply growth by about 100,000 bpd.
• OPEC+ agreed on August 3 to boost output by 547,000 bpd in September, completing the unwinding of 2.2 million bpd of cuts from November 2023.
• Oil futures structure has softened as prompt premiums narrow and prices hover near two-month lows, though risk premiums have ticked up ahead of the Trump–Putin meeting and potential sanctions shifts.