Overview

• Front-month WTI ended with a 47-cent premium over the seventh-month contract, the narrowest since January 2024, signaling ample prompt supply.
• Brent fell to $62.31 and WTI to $58.54 by 0817 GMT on Oct. 14 as U.S.–China trade tensions and weaker outlook signals weighed on sentiment, leaving both near five-month lows.
• OPEC+ has raised output targets by more than 2.7 million barrels per day this year, a scale that, together with reports of rising floating storage, is pressuring the front of the curve.
• U.S. refinery utilization on a four-week average dropped to 92.5% in the week to Oct. 3, the lowest since early June during seasonal maintenance, reducing demand for prompt crude.
• The IEA increased its supply growth forecast for this year and trimmed demand growth, while OPEC projected a smaller 2026 shortfall as planned production hikes proceed.