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Oil Market Caught Between U.S. Stock Draws and Rising Russian Flows to India

New U.S. tariffs on India inject uncertainty over trade flows.

Overview

  • U.S. crude inventories fell by 2.4 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 22, with gasoline and distillates also down and Cushing stocks declining for the first time in eight weeks, signaling firm late‑summer demand.
  • India imported roughly 1.5–1.6 million barrels per day of Russian crude in August, and three trading sources told Reuters September purchases are preliminarily set to rise by about 150,000–300,000 barrels per day.
  • The U.S. doubled tariffs on Indian imports to as much as 50% in a move linked to New Delhi’s Russian oil buying, with analysts noting limited immediate disruption but heightened policy risk for future flows.
  • Supply worries eased after Russia said its Volgograd refinery will restart earlier than planned and BP brought a key unit at its Whiting, Indiana, refinery back online, though prices slipped on renewed surplus concerns.
  • Attacks on energy infrastructure in the Russia–Ukraine war have curbed Russian refining capacity and complicated export plans, as the EU tightens its oil price cap from Sept. 2 to restrict Western services for higher‑priced cargoes.