Overview
- Brent is down nearly 18% for 2025 and around $61 a barrel, while WTI is off about 15% near $58.
- OPEC+ restored roughly 2.9 million bpd since April, paused further increases for the first quarter of 2026, and will confer by videoconference on January 4.
- The IEA projects a 2026 surplus near 3.84 million bpd and Goldman Sachs estimates about 2 million bpd, anchoring bearish positioning.
- An American Petroleum Institute report pointed to a 1.7 million‑barrel U.S. crude inventory build last week, pending confirmation from official data.
- Brief price spikes tied to conflicts and sanctions faded as supply outpaced demand, and Russia’s oil export revenues slumped sharply according to Goldman Sachs analysis.