Overview
- Brent was last around $61.50 and WTI near $57.45 after a five‑month low, with a slight rebound helped by sanction‑related supply risks and a U.S. move to buy 1 million barrels for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
- The IEA projects a potential surplus approaching 4 million barrels per day in 2026, reinforcing a bearish backdrop after a third straight weekly drop.
- Market signals point to slack conditions, with Brent’s curve back in contango, a record 1.24 billion barrels on tankers reported by Vortexa, and softer Chinese crude import flows.
- Supply growth continues as OPEC+ eases cuts and U.S. upstream activity ticks higher, including a recent rig-count increase reported by Baker Hughes and U.S. output at record levels.
- Traders are watching U.S.–China talks after new port fees strained trade, while Russia‑linked disruptions and U.S. pressure on buyers of Russian crude inject sporadic upside risk alongside API‑reported draws in U.S. inventories.