Overview

• Crude prices rallied over 3% on July 2, fueled by S&P 500 gains and renewed Middle East risk premiums after Iran cut IAEA communications.
• Oil dipped later in the week on reports that the U.S. plans to resume nuclear talks with Iran, suggesting a possible easing of sanctions and higher Iranian exports.
• A Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas survey released July 3 found nearly half of oil executives expect to drill fewer wells in 2025 due to rising steel and aluminum input costs.
• Barclays raised its Brent forecast by $6 to $72 per barrel for 2025, citing stronger OECD demand growth and slower non-OPEC supply expansion.
• OPEC+ has restored 2.2 million bpd of past cuts with monthly 411,000 bpd increases in June and July and is set to approve the same rise for August.